سناریو های پیش روی ایران در قفقاز جدید

Title: Prospective Scenarios for Iran in the New Caucasus Author : Dr Nouradin Jafari Hezarany Researcher ID 0009-0687-7755 Dr.n.jafary@gmail.com Abstract: This article aims to explore the potential scenarios for Iran's involvement in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the New Caucasus region. By analyzing key factors such as historical context, regional dynamics, and Iran's strategic interests, this study provides insights into the possible future trajectories and outcomes for Iran's engagement in the Caucasus. The article concludes with a discussion on the implications and recommendations for Iran's foreign policy in the region. Keywords: Iran, Caucasus, geopolitical landscape, regional dynamics, strategic interests, future scenarios, foreign policy Introduction: The Caucasus region has witnessed significant geopolitical shifts in recent years, with the emergence of new power dynamics and changing alliances. Iran, as a neighboring country, has a vested interest in the stability and security of the Caucasus. This article aims to analyze the potential scenarios that Iran may face in the New Caucasus, considering its historical ties, regional dynamics, and strategic interests. Body: 1. Historical Context: - Overview of Iran's historical relations with the Caucasus region. - Examination of cultural, economic, and political ties between Iran and the Caucasus. - Analysis of historical conflicts and cooperation between Iran and regional actors. 2. Regional Dynamics: - Overview of the current geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus. - Examination of the role of major regional actors, including Russia, Turkey, and the European Union. - Analysis of ongoing conflicts and their impact on Iran's interests. 3. Iran's Strategic Interests: - Identification of Iran's key strategic interests in the Caucasus. - Analysis of economic, energy, and security considerations for Iran. - Examination of Iran's cultural and religious ties with the region. 4. Future Scenarios: - Scenario 1: Enhanced Cooperation and Economic Integration. - Scenario 2: Increased Competition and Rivalry. - Scenario 3: Conflict and Instability. - Scenario 4: Mediation and Diplomatic Engagement. Conclusion: Based on the analysis of historical context, regional dynamics, and Iran's strategic interests, this article presents potential scenarios for Iran's involvement in the New Caucasus. It is crucial for Iran to carefully navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape and pursue a foreign policy that safeguards its interests while promoting stability and cooperation in the region. By understanding the potential scenarios, Iran can make informed decisions and play a constructive role in shaping the future of the Caucasus 4 ماه پیش